Sunrise over Moqattam Hills Hides Uncertainty

Uncertainty: As I watch the sun rise over the Moqattam Hills which frame Cairo's eastern skyline, it is hard to imagine that people are being killed daily in Syria, others are demonstrating defiantly in Jordan over the cancellation of fuel subsidies, and that Israel and Gaza are dangerously trading rocket fire. The latter issue is a warning that it is going to be much harder for an Egypt which is democratizing to maintain its working relationship with Israel than it was for an authoritarian Egypt. Under Mubarak's rule, regional leaders did not have to worry too much about what their own people thought. President Morsi could turn out to be more of a pragmatist than his opponents thought; and he may find reasons to maintain working ties with the United States as it continues its longstanding commitment to Israel. Still, if hostility towards Israel and support for the Palestinians grows among the people of a democratic Egypt, it is realistic to think that this outlook will become reflected in the country's foreign policy. Hardly any one foresaw the upheavals of the Arab Spring; and certainly no one can say what this region will look like when it finally calms down again. Demonstrations: Hundreds of Egyptian protesters converged on the Arab League's Cairo headquarters on Thursday evening (Nov. 15) to demand an immediate halt to ongoing Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip. Groups from across Egypt's political spectrum are calling for a Friday mass rally in support of the besieged Gaza Strip. Brotherhood's Go Slow Approach: Morsi's pragmatic approach "is also due to the Muslim Brotherhood's belief that it must complete its project of Islamizing Egypt before it can pursue its regional ambitions. Indeed, as Mohamed Sudan, secretary for foreign relations of the Brotherhood's political party, said earlier this week, Morsi is pursuing the right path towards Israel because he is 'cancelling normalization with the Zionist entity gradually'" (Eric Trager, The Gaza Invasion: Will It Destroy Israel's Relationship With Egypt?, The Atlantic, November 15, 2012).